The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee brainstormed the impact of any future shocks on the inflation trajectory and stressed monitoring the cumulative effect of monetary policy actions over the past one year, which is still unfolding, revealed minutes of the rate-setting panel released on Thursday. The minutes of the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, also indicated it would be premature to declare an end to the monetary tightening cycle, which started in May 2022 to check high inflation following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. The central bank, which effected six back-to-back hikes in the key short-term lending rate (repo) since May 2022 to check high inflation, decided to take a pause early this month.
The price of bitcoin, the bestselling cryptocurrency, has shrunk nearly three times this year to mark the fate of such digital assets. Crashing prices, regulatory uncertainty and taxes have put Indian crypto exchanges in troubled waters. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's budget for FY23 announced a 30 per cent tax on any income from the transfer of virtual digital assets.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will have to do a tight-rope walk between staying fiscally prudent and general public expectations of lower taxes and a wider social security net, while at the same time firing the engines of the economy before general elections. Sitharaman will on Wednesday present her fifth straight Budget at a time when the economy is slowing due to global headwinds and specific sectors need attention. In the run-up to the Budget presentation, expectations are rife that she may tweak income-tax slabs to provide relief to the middle class and increase spending on the poor through programmes such as the rural job scheme while ramping up financial incentives for local manufacturing.
'Limited spillovers' to Asia's third-largest economy, even as world 'perilously close' to recession.
'The inflection point that really happened in the sector was during the pandemic when buyers' perception changed towards consumption and that gave a trigger to pent-up demand with the increased affordability.'
Mutual funds (MFs) are investing in more stocks despite the recent volatility. The industry invested in 824 companies across the listed universe as of October, according to primemfdatabase.com. The S&P BSE Sensex hit its all-time high of 62,245 that month. The index has since corrected to 57,864, around 7 per cent below the peak.
Gold prices are struggling and are down 18 per cent from their March highs. But stock prices have fallen even more. As a result, the precious metal has begun to outperform equities - both in the domestic market and international markets. Gold prices are up 2.6 per cent in the domestic market in the current calendar year (CY22) so far, according to the World Gold Council (WGC), compared to a 1.7 per cent decline in the Sensex year-to-date (YTD).
Deepening the funding crisis that startups have been witnessing for some time, the October inflows plunged 75 per cent on-year to $3.3 billion across 75 deals, including six large deals worth $2.2 billion, according to an industry report. Exits touched half of the inflows at $1.6 billion across 15 deals in the reporting months, a significant improvement over the previous month which saw just $653 million worth of exits across 24 deals, but 69 per cent lower on-year basis, according to the numbers collated by EY for the Indian Private Equity & Venture Capital Association, the umbrella body the PEs and VCs. However, the report said, on a month-on-month basis, the inflows continued to grow, clipping at 60 per cent over the September numbers.
Retail inflation dropped marginally to 7.01 per cent in June mainly due to slight easing in prices of vegetables and pulses, though it still remained above the Reserve Bank's comfort level for the sixth month in a row. The consumer price index (CPI) based inflation stood at 7.04 per cent in the preceding month of May and 6.26 per cent in June 2021. Inflation in the food basket in June 2022 was 7.75 per cent, compared to 7.97 per cent in the previous month, as per the National Statistical Office (NSO) data released on Tuesday.
A sharp rally in domestic stocks from June lows has once again rendered Indian markets expensive to their emerging-market (EM) peers. The 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple for the Nifty50 Index is around 20.6x - 82 per cent higher than 11.3 per cent for the MSCI EM Index. India's valuation premium has hit a five-month high. This is on the back of sharp outperformance to EM and global peers from June lows and also due to earnings downgrades, following the April-June quarter of 2022-23 earnings.
'Avoid going overweight on gold. But maintain a 10 per cent allocation via sovereign gold bonds,' Bajaj Capital MD Sanjiv Bajaj tells Sarbajeet K Sen.
Indian policymakers are almost alone, alongside the United States, in seeking a hard and multi-sectoral global decoupling from China in the expectation that it will boost their economies, observes Mihir S Sharma.
Setting the tone for his 2024 re-election bid, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday called for waging a war against the 'three evils' of corruption, appeasement and dynastic politics, stepped up the OBC outreach with a mega scheme and exuded confidence he would return to address the nation from the Red Fort next year.
The government on Friday came out with Foreign Trade Policy (FTP) 2023 which seeks to boost the country's exports to $2 trillion by 2030 by shifting from incentives to remission and entitlement based regime. Unlike the practice of announcing 5-year FTP, the latest policy has no end date and will be updated as and when needed, said Director General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) Santosh Sarangi while briefing media about FTP 2023. Earlier, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal unveiled FTP 2023 which will come into effect from April 1, 2023.
The government is expected to defer the mega initial public offering (IPO) of LIC to the next financial year as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has dampened fund managers' interest in the public issue, market experts said on Sunday. The government was looking to sell 5 per cent stake in Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) this month, which could have fetched over Rs 60,000 crore to the exchequer. The IPO would have helped meet the curtailed divestment target of Rs 78,000 crore this fiscal.
'We suggest investors with suitable risk appetite to consider allocating 40-50 per cent in large-caps, 25-30 per cent of funds in quality mid and small-caps and the rest in debt and high yield products.'
On the volume side, the number of M&A and PE deals was 110 in July, 15 per cent lower from 130 in July 2018.
Despite inflation easing, experts see RBI maintaining status quo on Dec 2
'India seems to be on a relatively better wicket compared to other emerging markets.'
Ravi Gopalakrishnan, head-equities, Canara Robeco Mutual Fund, tells Ashley Coutinho that earnings growth will pick up once the benefits of reform initiatives accrue.
Small stocks of Dalal Street grappled with turbulent times in 2022 as high volatility and higher interest rate regime sapped investors' appetite for these scrips but the horizon ahead seems less cloudy for the New Year. While the 30-share Sensex scaled multiple record peaks with bluechips glittering, small stocks underperformed and the BSE smallcap index declined more than 3 per cent this year. In comparison, the BSE Sensex climbed 2,673.61 points or 4.58 per cent till December 27.
'Investors need to expect steady returns over the next one to two years with bouts of high volatility.'
Given the uncertainties around gold's future course, stagger your purchases and buy on declines, says Sanjay Kumar Singh.
Foreign investors have pulled over Rs 6,400 crore from the Indian equity market in the first four trading sessions of the ongoing month when the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and US Federal Reserve raised interest rates. Given the headwinds in terms of elevated crude prices, inflation, tight monetary policy among others, FPIs' flows in India are expected to remain volatile in the near term, Shrikant Chouhan, Head - Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities, said. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) remained net sellers for seven months to April 2022, withdrawing a massive amount of over Rs 1.65 lakh crore from equities. This was largely on the back of anticipation of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve and due to the deteriorating geopolitical environment following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
India has the ability in all respects to be a great power and address our security challenges in the best national interests, says Commodore Venugopal Menon (retd).
What the reserves offer for now is improved import coverage of about 13 months, almost double the 2013 level of less than seven months. And, ammunition to arrest a rapid rupee slide, says Anup Roy.
The BJP still does not have a majority in Upper House of Parliament, the Rajya Sabha, and this will pose hurdles to the party's legislative reform agenda
Small-cap stocks raked in big gains in fiscal 2021-22 by giving up to 36.64 per cent returns, outshining the bigger benchmark gauge and experts believe that they may continue to outperform in FY23. Markets faced many headwinds in the latter part of the last fiscal with the emergence of geopolitical tension, inflation concerns and FII selling. Analysts said that the first half of the last fiscal was very good, while the market entered into consolidation in the second half, combined with high volatility.
After three consecutive years of infusing huge funds, foreign portfolio investors retreated from the Indian equity markets in a big way in 2022 with the highest-ever yearly net outflow of nearly Rs 1.21 lakh crore. The huge outflow, which surpasses by a big margin the previous record of Rs 53,000 crore net withdrawal in 2008, came amid aggressive rate hikes by central banks globally but 2023 is expected to be better on positivity about overall macroeconomic trends in India, experts said. Apart from global monetary tightening, volatile crude, rising commodity prices along with Russia and Ukraine conflict led to an exodus of foreign money in 2022.
The alacrity with which regional States responded to Delhi's invite signals that expectations are high regarding an Indian role in the efforts to stabilise the situation in Afghanistan, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The criticism that the Reserve Bank of India was behind the curve in hiking interest rate to tame rising inflation is unfair, former RBI Governor D Subbarao said on Wednesday and asserted that it is difficult for any central bank to anticipate the future more accurately. Earlier this month, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the central bank's rate-setting panel, surprised the markets with a 40 basis points hike in repo rate in an off-cycle policy meeting. It was also the first rate hike after August 2018, amid spiralling inflation.
India's economy has bounced back amazingly from the Covid-19 pandemic and nationwide lockdown over the last one year, but it is not out of the woods yet, according to the World Bank, which in its latest report has predicted that the country's real GDP growth for fiscal year 21/22 could range from 7.5 to 12.5 per cent.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Monday said despite the latest headwinds arising from the Jackson Hole summit leading to extreme volatility, our banking system and financial markets are strong enough to withstand such pressures. Taking the markets by surprise, US Fed chair Jerome Powell had told the annual Jackson Hole summit of central bankers and economists last week that he would have to keep raising federal fund rates to tame inflation, which remains the biggest challenge to the world's largest economy. He also warned of the pains that such monetary policy actions would create on growth and jobs.
Indian market probably has more headroom than the US, says Geoff Lewis, senior strategist for Asia, Manulife Asset Management.
'The big power struggle in faraway Europe erupted at a most critical juncture when India has been increasingly sceptical about American policies and statesmanship,' argues Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Illustration: Uttam Ghosh/Rediff.com After a brief respite at the year's start, FPIs have dumped shares worth more than $5.7 billion (Rs 42,596 crore), taking the cumulative net outflows since October to $10.5 billion (Rs 78,466 crore), and adding to the volatility on the bourses. The figure would have been a lot worse had it not been for net purchases to the tune of $5.7 billion in the primary market from October to date.
Changes in global oil and gas rates matter more to India's economy than other major economies because the country imports around 87 per cent of its oil, half of its gas in the form of LNG, and over 60 per cent of its LPG.
Amid slowing growth and low interest rates, investors will need to focus on stock-picking, suggests John Remmert.
Thanks to the recapitalisation by the government and measures taken by the central bank, collapse of any large housing finance company won't pose as big a risk as it had six months ago.
From powering mobile devices, US chip designer Qualcomm has tied up with Ola Electric to power its electric scooters. Qualcomm is providing the key 4G connected octa core android platform which provides connectivity, computing capabilities and enables rich immersive displays with power saving software.
